Advanced Statistics Drive Away Fans

Before I jump into the subject matter of this article, I want to provide some context and clarity to what is going to be said; the definition a 'fan' in the Miriam-Webster Dictionary is: an enthusiastic devotee (as of a sport or a performing art) usually as a spectator, or an ardent admirer or enthusiast (as of a celebrity or a pursuit). At one point in my life, I was what could be considered a 'fan' of professional and collegiate sports. I played football during my younger days and when I played basketball (I am aging myself horribly here), the names 'World B. Free', 'Michael Jordan' or 'Magic Johnson' would echo in my head as I took a long range shot, went up for a contested layup or effectively/stylistically passed to an open man out of a double team. When I played football, the names 'Jerry Rice', 'Walter Payton' or 'Lawrence Taylor' were inspirations when I ran a fly route, broke tackles or wrapped up a ball carrier when making a tackle. I collected cards and chewed on that stale, concrete gum that came in the packs, memorized stats and tracked the free agent destinations of the players eligible to change locations for a better chance to win or for a bigger payday. I used t o actually prepare for the NFL Draft, which used to take place during the weekends. I purchased an 'Athlon' magazine and other publications which covered the event, a notebook, found a good pen and ensured that my mother had supplied the refrigerator with enough 'Sprite', 'Combos' and 'Bugles' to last until rapture. In many of my spare moments, I designed football and basketball uniforms and created fictional leagues in which I would dummy up the box scores, team records, logistics for travel and developed full league schedules (I know most of you never did this, but I was an only child, so give me a break). In the wake of Reggie Lewis' tragic death, I submitted a new Boston Celtics uniform concept to the team. My family was an active participant in the New England Patriots-New York Jets rivalry in the 1980s where each family would make that drive on I-95 and go to the games on each other's home turf sometimes twice per year. I was privileged to sit in on discussions at the Massachusetts State House as a guest of then-Governor of Massachusetts William Weld, about new Patriots stadium proposals that would be built in the Metro Boston area. I submitted a revolutionary project proposal that included a tiered stadium design which would house football, basketball AND hockey.

As I grew up in the woebegone 1990's, a new era in terms of sports marketing emerged in which expansion teams were born, team colors and uniform designs changed; I was always the kid with the new San Jose Sharks apparel or the snazzy new jacket for a team that re-constituted it's color scheme (back then, just like today, all they do is add black to the existing color schemes). Being a New England Patriots fan growing up in Boston I was pretty much out of luck until Bill Parcells arrived in 1993 when it came to fresher Patriots gear. By this time, I worked at a sports apparel store called 'The Complete Athlete' in the heart of Downtown Boston. I was able to move product as a sales associate using the infinite knowledge of the sports industry I gleaned by being a fan; I was given the added responsibility of becoming a consultant 'buyer' for the store and attended trade shows to gauge the sports apparel landscape. Being right down the street from the then-offices of the Patriots and a short walk from the Boston Garden at the time, I was privy to running into new draftees and their parents, executives and even established players. As I spoke with these individuals who worked within the landscape I pretty much worshipped, I made up my mind to become a sports agent and entered the University of Massachusetts to accomplish the goal. Within all of the research I did as a fan, I was a regular subscriber of Sports Illustrated and always went back to my father's old school collection of SI's from the 60's and 70s to read the 'Faces In The Crowd' section to reference the then-rising stars of the past and recognize as they came to prominence in their professional or collegiate sports endeavors in my day. I was completely sucked in...I even began following the exploits within soccer, a sport I do not like, as the prodigy Freddy Adu made history and played the sport on a professional level sport at the age of 14.

However, despite the once-moribund Patriots becoming a household name in reference to championship accolades, the Boston Celtics constantly being in the discussion of being a title contender and winning a title in the 07-08 season, the Boston Red Sox breaking an 86 year championship drought and the Boston Bruins winning a Stanley Cup, I found myself, even in the midst of one of the greatest sports eras my hometown ever experienced, moving further and further away from being the fan I once was. Yes, much of this can be attributed to me growing older and finding other interests. However, I tend to believe that I began to look at it as just another business that more or less takes advantage of the fan and brainwashes them into narratives that are not exactly representative of the world they actually live in. The reason why I came to this realization is detailed below. Unrelated side note: I will reference what I term 'the cloth' when it comes to NBA basketball here and in subsequent articles, which will detail how every championship team that ever raised that Larry O'Brien Trophy has some connection to the lineage of previous championship dynasties. This will be my ode to the dying breed of sports fan such as myself, who is has been driven off by the sensationalist-driven, hot-take, click-bait, TMZ-themed incarnation of sports media these days, which influences the athletes and coaches and has created some weird mishmash of star power, branding and 'platforms' which do not respect tried and true sound business practices that create successful and sustainable teams. All of them being drunk off of irrelevant stats while watching the games with blindfolds on. Now back to regularly scheduled programming.

What has played a role in driving me away from 'fan' status is the integration of Wall Street economist data driven analysis into sports, which puts a particularized emphasis on abstract mathematical principles which has overrun trustworthiness and relevance of the naked eye. Today, many members of team front offices are administered by individuals who have extensive experience in economics rather than people management. Terms such as PER, OPS, Usage, WAR and other analytic acronyms are regularly sold as determinative and predictive factors as to whether a team or a player is performing at an optimum level, you know, like a stock. Having participated in discussions with teenagers and 30-somethings in which they actually reference statistical models they don't even understand in the interest of furthering the discussion is wholly annoying. It happens almost every time I attend a game when I have the 'temerity and unmitigated gall' of trusting my eyes. The4Corners keeps it rather simple...if a team plays a winning brand of sport that makes effective use of the talent on the roster and executes at critical moments, statistical models don't matter. For instance, in baseball, a prominent Oakland A's executive is widely celebrated about his revolutionary analytic approach to building cheaply constructed, competitive baseball teams which are subject to low payroll restraints. A major motion picture was made in commemoration to him and his method. How many World Series titles has this organization won with him at the helm? One of his then- assistants is now a member of the Cleveland Browns front office...I rest my case.

The genesis and core tenets of what makes great players and teams, such as 'team building', 'work ethic', 'character', 'roles', 'continuity' and 'experience' are cast aside and subjugated by the established new age analysis. These key principles are the bedrock of what creates well-run, profitable and successful businesses have been abandoned in the morass of equations and abstract mathematical theory. You know what drives people who used to be sports fans crazy? Look no further than the state of the NBA; yes, myself and my generational contemporaries firmly believe that the game has become...soft. However, more vitriol should be aimed at how the game has essentially become a track meet or as I call it 'soccer on wood' in which the following three actions has become most prominent: the dunk, the dribble and the three-point shot. This is by no means a slight of the players of the game as these skills are what drive stardom in high school or AAU, initiate college recruitment and eventually, the chance to play professionally on the world's largest stage. My message to any highly gifted athlete has been and always will be 'get your money'.

However, the problem is that players of today are encouraged to pass up truly efficient offensive habits like the midrange shot (the kinds of shot that helped make the all-time greats...well, great) in favor of three point shots. In essence, the player in discouraged from shooting closer to the rim, which defies the logic of establishing roles and emphasizing the skills that players are best at exercising. Secondly, what is the point of dribbling if you are going nowhere? Why is the extra step, whether it be a sloppy Euro-step or the infamous 'shuffle' step-back jumper, which was IS traveling, woefully under-emphasized and excused? I won't hate on the dunk no matter what, because there is something exhilarating about someone putting the basketball on an opposing player's neck. The negative analysis provided above is a derivative of analytic-based practices and has turned the game into one in which I sometimes strain to recognize.

To be clear, I am not targeting the NBA. However, I believe I am part of a minority of people that acknowledges the comical celebration of players that 1) have a detrimental effect on the operation of the team dynamic; 2) are encouraged to impact the game beyond their capabilities; 3) the exercise of such which has a damaging effect to better players; 4) all because their advanced statistics create a picture are contrary to what is seen by the naked eye. These analytic concepts are sold to the fans through the media partners of the league which hire talking heads that spout this nonsense. The fans, who are surrounded by these voices every time they turn on the radio, television or go to a website, are inundated with these mythical beliefs to the point they become the stereotypical Kool-Aid guzzler which purposely disregards or ignores what their eyes are telling them because the 'advanced' stats say otherwise. I am not a hardcore baseball follower, but this also occurs in Major League Baseball...a guy strikes out often, can't run the bases, is a crappy teammate but some obscure advanced statistical analysis dictates that he stay on the field.

Today in the NBA, it is painfully clear that efficiency is measured by an analytic model in which two of greatest shooters in the history of the league, in combination with some uniquely versatile players and a coach which is part of 'the cloth', all coalesced into a high scoring, defensively minded 'dynasty'. As a result, all teams play the same style despite the deficiency of similar talent, which leads to 48-minute long games of 'horse' managed by coaches that interrupt any kind of flow with incessant timeouts and strange substitution patterns in the interest of adhering to some statistical model. The same can be said about baseball, where a team is in position to score some runs and substitutes in a light hitting player, who some analytic model states fairs better against left or right-handed pitchers (but not THIS lefty or righty and perhaps not now) for a player that has a track record of playing well and executing under pressurized conditions.

As I have moved beyond 'fan' status and became a poor man's business analyst of sorts when it came to professional sports, I tend to notice how much advanced statistics are better utilized for the purposes of getting players more money. This method can easily be applied in contact sports where the injury risks are high and the careers may be short. Where I believe advanced statistics in the NBA or MLB are used to keep player salaries down, in the NFL, the same models may be used to increase a player's value and thus, a greater share of a team's salary cap ledger. For instance, let's just say I am an agent for an NFL running back; I can easily compile statistics of the highest paid players at the position and create a model that works in the favor of my client. The only model of efficiency that really matters when it comes to running backs is: yards per carry, yards after contact, total yards and touchdowns. If I craft a model that creates a predicate of what my player does which shows the potential of him being able to meet elite benchmarks without having really done so, I can increase the value of the player despite the eyes of the scouts, coaches and executives having not been shown it. Due to the risks my client takes on every snap, it is imperative that I as his representative, get him as much money as possible NOW...even if I have to sell a ghost to the people who hold the checkbook. I guess in essence, I am saying that 'advanced statistics' are pretty much a hustle that is meant to control or manipulate costs; in the NBA, 'efficiency' is measured upon all time greats; although it is evident on its face that it does not impact players' pockets, but it may grossly affect a player from making even MORE money if they are made to play in a style that is the antithesis of what they do best. The same can be said of baseball players; how many analytical models are attributed to a pitcher and his ability to get people out?

Yes, I look like a rambling 40-plus guy complaining about evolution and embracing how things 'used to be' and I'll be that. However, one cannot tell me that an analytical model can be universally applied in a league and influence a product that attracts true fans. It will broaden its appeal to degree, but that extension of exposure is more apt to be toward the 'flavor of the month fan', rather than the life-long traditional fan that invests pride in the product, its history and the players that created memorable moments. These are the fans that hand down season tickets and steeps their children in the experience and culture. The saturation of analytical models to sports actually drives people away; imagine the father speaking to his little kid about a player from the old days: "Man o' man...I remember that magical season when his Wins Above Replacement stats were off the charts...you should have been there." Sounds ridiculous, right? If a basketball player averages 25 points, 6 rebounds and 8 assists and the team is winning, what matter is his PER or Usage? If a baseball player is crushing the ball consistently and hits among the league average, what matter is his OPS or WAR? Why should the fans care about this and why is it constantly being shoved down their throats? This is what makes people walk away. Pardon me if I put my agent hat back on: Any executive should rightfully smoke me out of the building and beat me with a shoe for saying that my running back client that does not catch the ball and plays in a pass-heavy offense, is an integral part of the offense in his part time role because the team scores points 65% of the time he is on the field and lined up in the I-formation during 4 o'clock games. Likewise, any executive that has a contract proposal worth millions of dollars on his desk from me and doesn't trust his eyes enough to realize that I am full of it, he deserves to be fired.

In closing, after all that...no matter how much trash I talk, somehow I will get Michael Corleone'd back into it. My little catharsis for the pain I can be subject to in watching these games is writing for The4Corners, just to share a little perspective.